Off Week Shakeups

Last weeks news of Christian Horner’s dismissal from Red Bull sent both shock, yet all together not surprising, waves through the F1 sphere. It shows the signs of the turmoil and uncertainty at the team, but what about everyone else? Does this move create waves all down the paddock? I would think so, but what teams are in positions to surf that wave and will others just be left wet and disappointed? Let’s take a look into the crystal ball and try and predict the future of what may come from this first domino falling.

Where does Horner go from here? Christian Horner, once the youngest Team Principal on the grid, is now left without a home. He brought success to a team in ways F1 had not seen before. The Red Bull experiment began as a marketing tool to sell energy drinks and transformed into a dominant brand in the sport all with Christian at the helm. Now, without a job or a team to lead where does he look? Maybe he gets a call from his old friend Flavio Briatore, director at Alpine and legend of Formula One days of old. The French team has been going through its own restructuring of sorts, with a revolving door second seat, new power unit deals, and a real issue finding direction with its program. These are problems that may feel familiar to Horner, and possibly ripe for an opportunity to jump in and right the ship. Flavio has hired Steve Nielson as “Managing Director” to take on some of the team principal duties. The T.P. position, at least officially, remains still open. Horner picking up a stake in the team, a seat on the board, and the new Principal title don’t seem all that unreasonable of a leap to make. He could be a good fit, and his style of leadership and decision making might be what the Alpine team need to move up the grid. The other leading rumor as to the location of Horner’s next office is Maranello. The prancing horses of Ferrari are no stranger to giving the axe to a team boss that’s not living up to the expectations of the tifosi. The rumblings as to the security of Fred Vasseur’s job are growing louder amidst another season of middle of the road performances. While I am sure the temptation for Ferrari to hire a proven team boss is great, I would suspect Horner surely won’t fit. Ferrari run their program by committee; every decision runs up the chain, gets the stamp, and runs back down - a system that only works if you have good company men all along the way. We know Horner is definitely not a Company Man. What put him on the map was taking away control from the big bosses. Ferrari is likely not going to be willing to part with any meaningful stake in the F1 program to satisfy Horner. At this point just being on the payroll is not enough with someone with this man’s credentials. The other, even longer, long shot deal might be with the new Audi project. The former Sauber Group program is just shy of starting from scratch. They brought Mattia Binotto as Chief Operating Technical Officer to oversee the project. Some of his early moves are already starting to show success. The hiring of Jonathan Wheatley as Team Principal from Red Bull is already proving positive with the gains the current Stake F1 team are showing on track. The addition of Horner to the Audi group in some sort of executive advisor of driver operations something or other, would be a good way to capitalize on the experience of Horner while giving him a reasonable stake in the future of the program.  

What does Horner’s removal mean for Red Bull? In all of the questions surrounding the team the biggest is the future of its number 1 driver Max Verstappen. Is Red Bull’s decision to remove Horner because Max is already gone, or is it a play to keep him? My money is Red Bull just bought themselves a year. Placate Max enough to keep him around long enough to see what the new Red Bull Ford-powered car looks like. Max's future remains a bit of a mystery, but more on that in a bit...Next, Yuki. Poor Poor Yuki. What becomes of you? Unfortunately, with Christian’s departure, what little protection he had left is now completely gone. The writing may have already been on the wall with the departure of Honda as the P/U provider. Maybe he gets one more year, maybe not. Now Isiack may suddenly find himself as Driver number 1 on a top team. Possible that we see Arvid Linblad, the rookie that got his FIA Super license exemption earlier this year, get promoted. Now, Laurent Mekies, the new boss, promoted from VCARB. He has been around the grid since 2000 with the old Arrows team and held various lead technical and operations positions along the way. Now the Frenchmen finds himself thrust into the spotlight. No longer the leader of the junior team but in the new face of Red Bull Racing, as Team Principal and CEO. He has somewhat successfully managed the landing space for developing drivers going up to the big team or being relegated back down. This year appears his best so far with his junior program on average doing better than the second driver on Red Bull proper. How does Laurent do playing with new toys rather than hand me downs?

Max and Merc

The biggest thing everyone wants to know at this point is what is Max doing? The top options appear to be sit tight, “wait and see,” or move to Mercedes. I suppose Aston Martin is still on the table but at this point it feels like a real distant choice. So what does Max gain from staying with Red Bull? He is clearly the number one guy and that plan will continue. He will get more control over his race car development and more of a voice in team decisions now that Horner has been ousted. He will be on the forefront of the new power unit development, and, if it comes out competitive, he is in a comfortable place. Now, what is the upside of leaving? Probably a sturdy paycheck. All of the speculation is that Mercedes will have the advantage going into the new 2026 regulation set. It is relatively strong speculation, but speculation nonetheless. He enters the new season with an already competitive car and can immediately put a championship fight back on the radar. Now with seeing Toto and Max vacationing together these rumors are getting a bit heavier. The advantage Toto and Merc have is giving Max the Lewis treatment. Just let you do what you want, just keep winning. They might even be developing their new AMGXX GT Car, a tempting bonus for Max.  

So what if Max does move? How does that ripple down the paddock? First, at Mercedes as his (for today’s exercise) landing space. Toto is left with an important decision. Keep Kimi or George? Keeping George is a WILD choice. I think we would hope for a classic Hamilton v. Rossberg battle. Two teammates that clearly don’t like each other and are willing to go full send to beat the other. The occasional crash will happen, but it’s in sacrifice for a beautiful show to the championship battle. Or it’s just Max beating up on George and George complaining about it a lot. Toto is a business man. He is looking for a bottom line, and on that bottom line is WIN. Having two experienced, race winning drivers helps achieve that goal far easier. But what to do with Kimi? If George is staying, Mercedes is looking to keep all of the investment alive somewhere. The likely solution is to lease him out. The team that may be able to take on a driver for a fee might be Alpine, a team that clearly has a wide open second seat (and now moving to the Mercedes power unit group). Let him keep driving for another season until George’s contract is up and see how it all looks then. Now, what happens if you elect to keep Kimi? Keeping a young driver protects the investment and sets him up with Max Verstappen as a teammate and mentor. Sure he will pick up some bad habits about media, but it’s a fantastic standard to be held to as far as race craft. In keeping Kimi this leaves George without a seat. We saw with Carlos Sainz hitting the market last year that teams will definitely make an effort to get a winning driver. The problem is that the teams with availability and teams that can afford him are not quite as plentiful. The recently vacated Red Bull seat seems a good choice. George moves in as a lead driver with a train of juniors and rookies behind him. Does the Audi project dump its junior driver for the prospect of Russell? Is Alpine willing to pay as much as George is demanding in their search for success? The more interesting position for Mercedes is if Max stays. Kimi has a contract in place and is set. George, however, is in a bit of a predicament. He is left without a contract extension and Mercedes not willing to commit on a term longer than the next year. 

This first move by Red Bull is sure to set off a chain reaction of things to come in the following weeks. Look to news from Alpine and Flavio on their driver situation and, potentially, new team boss.